Bitcoin Crosses $120,000 Milestone as Momentum Continues — Market Talk

0435 GMT - Bitcoin hits yet another record high amid policy and macro tailwinds. Part of the momentum is due to higher institutional interest, which some say reflects fading confidence in sovereign currencies due to soaring debt, investor Louis Navellier says. The Trump administration's pro-crypto moves--like a bitcoin reserve--have brought legitimacy to the space, says Aaron Hill at FP Markets. Since the start of 2025, spot bitcoin ETFs have pulled in $14.4 billion, and corporates are ramping up participation, too, says Pepperstone's Dilin Wu. This week, focus is on key crypto legislation in the U.S. that could smooth barriers to institutional participation and add regulatory certainty, Wu adds. Major data are also in focus. If rate-cut hopes ebb, that could damp crypto sentiment. Bitcoin is last at $121,008. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0358 GMT - China's exports continued to show resilience in the final month of the second quarter, offering a welcome boost for the economy, says Zhiwei Zhang at Pinpoint Asset Management. June's export growth was solid, and high-frequency data suggests that has continued so far in July. It seems that front-loading of exports to the U.S. to get ahead of tariffs hasn't ended, the chief economist writes. That could partly offset weak domestic demand and help keep GDP growth around the government's target of 5% in 2Q, Zhang adds. Still, the outlook for 2H is unclear, as front-loading will fade eventually. There are already calls for fresh fiscal stimulus to counter U.S. tariff damage to China's economy. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0351 GMT - Singapore's surprisingly strong 2Q GDP advance data was driven by front-loading of exports, not from the city-state but from other economies, Barclays' Brian Tan and Hongying Liu write in a note. "This is unlikely to sustain," they say. The limited data from advance estimates suggest that the surprise came in large part from services activity around shipments from other economies going through Singapore, they add. Barclays raises its full-year growth forecast for Singapore to 2.0% from 1.0%. While Barclays acknowledges a risk that the 2Q GDP outperformance could lead to a delay, its base case remains that the MAS will opt to reduce the Singapore Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate policy to zero this month, rather than waiting.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0334 GMT - The Singapore dollar consolidates against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session amid mixed signals. Data released earlier showed stronger-than-expected advance 2Q GDP growth for Singapore, which could boost sentiment toward the Singapore dollar, Maybank analysts say in a foreign-exchange research and strategy report. However, a few market participants flag risks to the currency from U.S. tariffs ahead, the analysts add. President Trump said in letters to the EU and Mexico, which were posted on Truth Social on Saturday, that the U.S. will charge a 30% tariff on goods from them effective Aug. 1. USD/SGD is little changed at 1.2811. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0303 GMT - Japan's core machinery orders, which exclude ships and power equipment, fell 0.6% in May compared with April's 9.1% decline, according to figures released Monday. The data is considered a leading indicator for capital spending. "Amid persistent policy-related uncertainty and sluggish domestic consumption, capital expenditure is likely to remain subdued for some time," says Norinchukin Research Institute economist Takeshi Minami. The focus will be on whether the Japanese government prioritizes reaching a trade agreement after the Upper House election on Sunday or if it sticks to the principle of maintaining free trade. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0244 GMT - Singapore's better-than-expected 2Q advance GDP estimates and upward revision of 1Q data spur OCBC to upgrade its growth forecast for this year to 2.1% from 1.6% projected earlier. The economy recovered sequentially from 1Q's contraction to expand in 2Q, putting to rest concerns of a technical recession in 1H, says chief economist Selena Ling in a note. However, the external economic landscape remains very fluid, and the key is to monitor potential sectoral tariffs on semiconductors and/or pharmaceuticals. Ling reckons that the Monetary Authority of Singapore's monetary policy review due later this month could adopt a "wait-and-see" mode, barring downside core CPI risks.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0243 GMT - Singapore's economic strength in 2Q, as indicated by advance data released earlier, is unlikely to last, Capital Economics' Shivaan Tandon says in a commentary. Some of the quickening in Singapore's services sector--the largest contributor to the 2Q growth pickup--was probably driven by a boost from front-loading ahead of U.S. tariffs, the markets economist says. With this boost likely to fade and GDP growth across key export markets poised to slow, growth in Singapore's export-oriented services sector is expected to drop back, and manufacturing will probably continue to struggle, Tandon says. Capital Economics continues to expect Singapore's central bank to loosen monetary policy further. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0241 GMT - U.S. policy shifts could dominate the dollar's tone this week, along with inflation readings, says Paul Mackel, Global Head of FX Research at HSBC. U.S. CPI is expected to have risen modestly in June compared with May. "The USD is showing nascent signs of responding to data in a more conventional manner, and so the risk of softer numbers would be a thorn in its side," he says in an email. Also, the announcement of potential tariffs on certain countries, namely Brazil, Canada, EU, and Mexico, and targeted products, such as pharmaceuticals and copper, will keep uncertainty high. While these announcements could support the USD, there are other U.S. policy risks to consider, including recent criticism of Fed Chair Powell about the costs to renovate the central bank's headquarters, he adds. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

0215 GMT - Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers has pushed back on suggestions the Labor government's goal of building 1.2 million homes by 2029 can't be met. Government briefing papers accidentally released by the Treasury Department stated the target won't be achieved. Chalmers told reporters that he agreed the target, which has been put in place to sharply boost supply and take pressure off prices, is ambitious. Still, the target remains in place and the government is focused on making what changes are needed to reach the goal, he says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0200 GMT - Singapore's stronger-than-expected 2Q advance GDP data may buoy the Singapore dollar, MUFG Bank's Lloyd Chan says in a research report. The data showed the country's GDP grew 1.4% on-quarter in 2Q, reversing the revised 0.5% contraction in 1Q, the senior currency analyst notes. Hence, "Singapore avoided a technical recession," Chan says. Looking ahead, however, 2H could "prove more challenging, with potential payback in export growth following earlier front-loading, and the risk of higher [U.S.] tariffs on Singapore's trading partners from" Aug. 1, Chan adds. "These factors could have negative spillover effects on Singapore's trade-reliant economy," Chan adds. USD/SGD is down 0.1% at 1.2806. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0130 GMT - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority may continue to withdraw liquidity to boost local interbank offered rates and keep USD/HKD within 7.75-7.85 range, UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research team says. Hong Kong's central bank bought HK$13.28 billion of the local currency late last week, as the Hong Kong dollar dropped against its U.S. counterpart to 7.85, the weak end of the official trading band, the team says in a note. HKMA's five rounds of HKD-buying interventions conducted since late June have totaled around HK$72.35 billion, HKMA data show. USD/HKD is steady at 7.8500, according to FactSet. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0032 GMT - Australia's June employment data on Thursday are expected to show unemployment hovering around 4.1%, where it has remained for the last six months. Given global uncertainty, the fact that the Reserve Bank of Australia has only cut interest by 50 bps this cycle, and that the economy growing slowly, the low level of unemployment is notable. It's one of the factors allowing the RBA to be cautious as it lowers rates. The data will help shape thinking on whether the RBA will cut rates in August, having disappointed markets last week. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)